While former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland remains the clear frontrunner to become New Mexico’s next governor, new polling and campaign tactics suggest the path to the nomination isn’t without its hurdles. Her primary opponent, Bernalillo County DA Sam Bregman, is aggressively targeting specific voter blocks to close a double-digit gap.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!The Current Hurdles
- The Independent Factor: For the first time this year, “Declined to State” (independent) voters can participate in the primary. Among those choosing the Democratic ballot, Bregman leads Haaland 28% to 17%. With 56% of these voters still undecided, they represent a wildcard that could shrink Haaland’s lead.
- The Demographic Split: Haaland’s support is massive among women (+24 points) and college-educated voters (+30 points). However, the race is nearly a dead heat among voters without a college degree, where she leads by only 3 points.
- Negative Ad Blitz: Bregman has launched a series of “negative ads” focusing on a past campaign trip Haaland took on a private jet. Haaland’s team has pushed back, calling it a “media campaign of falsehoods,” but the ads are a clear attempt to chip away at her “status quo challenger” image.
The “Firewall”: Why Haaland is Still Favored
Despite these primary “snags,” Haaland’s campaign is built on a very sturdy foundation:
- Institutional Strength: She dominated the pre-primary convention in March, taking 73.5% of the delegate vote.
- Resource Dominance: With over $11 million raised, Haaland has a 5-to-1 cash advantage over Bregman, allowing her to control the airwaves in the final weeks.
- Base Loyalty: Among registered Democrats, she leads Bregman 48% to 23%.
The Big Picture
While the “snag” in the primary reveals some vulnerability with independent men and non-college-educated voters, the sheer scale of Haaland’s financial and institutional support makes her a formidable force. For Bregman to pull off an upset, he would need to capture the vast majority of the 36% of voters who remain undecided.
