The Tight Race for Power: Can Jamaat-e-Islami Outpace the BNP in Bangladesh?

The political landscape in Bangladesh has been fundamentally reshaped following the ouster of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League regime in August 2024. While the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) was initially seen as the inevitable frontrunner for the general election, now tentatively scheduled for February 2026 by Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus, its lead is far from secure.

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The once-banned Islamist party, Jamaat-e-Islami (Jamaat), is rapidly closing the gap, creating a genuine and unexpected two-horse race for the next government.

The Narrow Margin: Polls Signal a Potential Surprise

The prospect of a Jamaat victory is no longer unthinkable, based on a recent survey conducted by the US-based think tank, the International Republican Institute (IRI). The poll results, released in November 2025, show a razor-thin advantage for the BNP:

Party	Voter Preference
Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)	33%
Jamaat-e-Islami (Jamaat)	29%
Difference	4 percentage points

This narrow lead, combined with key political shifts, suggests that events leading up to the election could easily swing the results.

Why Jamaat-e-Islami is Gaining Ground

The rise of Jamaat against the BNP is attributed to several factors:

• Organizational Strength: Jamaat possesses a highly organized and robust structure that is considered superior to the BNP’s and second only to the currently-banned Awami League.
• Student Union Sweep: In a major signal of shifting sentiment, the Jamaat’s student wing, the Islami Chhatra Shibir, swept the Dhaka University Central Students’ Union election in September, followed by dominating student polls at other major universities (Jahangirnagar, Rajshahi, and Chittagong).
• BNP’s Image Problems: Some sections of the public are growing wary of the BNP due to allegations of extortion and land-grabbing by some party members in the anticipation of an assured victory. This has allowed the anti-incumbency sentiment against the former Awami League regime to partially transfer to the BNP.
• Community Engagement: Jamaat members are reportedly engaging in an active image-building exercise by providing assistance and protection to citizens, including members of the Hindu minority, who have faced harassment in post-Hasina Bangladesh. This positioning could earn them votes from minority communities and those seeking an alternative for security.
• Internal BNP Turbulence: The BNP is navigating a difficult period:
  • Party chief Khaleda Zia is on life support in the hospital.
  • Her son and heir apparent, Tarique Rahman, remains in London, citing security concerns and planning his return, leaving a vacuum in the party’s central leadership on the ground.
• Policy Stance: While the BNP is eager for early elections, the Jamaat has been rooting for deeper reforms in Bangladesh’s electoral processes before the vote, a stance that may resonate with voters demanding systemic change. Furthermore, the moderate Islamist, business, and even a section of freedom fighter families—crucial BNP voter blocs—are reportedly moving away from Khaleda Zia’s party.

What the Jamaat’s Rise Means for India

A victory for the Jamaat-e-Islami would necessitate a significant geopolitical reassessment for New Delhi:

• Historical Context: Jamaat has historically been viewed as pro-Pakistan, and several of its leaders were executed after being tried for their involvement in 1971 war crimes.
• Security Concerns: The last BNP-Jamaat coalition government (2001-2006) was considered a security nightmare for India, with anti-India terrorist and Jihadi elements reportedly using Bangladeshi soil for activities against India.
• Anti-India Sentiment: The current environment, following Hasina’s ouster, has seen a rise in anti-India sentiments and the increasing influence of pro-Pakistan elements. The rise of fundamentalist and extremist groups under the caretaker setup is a key security concern.

Conclusion

With the Awami League banned and the BNP facing internal instability and public fatigue, the Jamaat-e-Islami is well-positioned to capitalize on the desire for change. The four-point lead separating the BNP and Jamaat is extremely narrow, making the upcoming election highly volatile and underscoring the need for regional powers like India to prepare for a range of possible outcomes.