Bangladesh is showing interest in joining a potential regional grouping led by China and Pakistan, a move that would exclude India. This consideration follows the recent political change in Dhaka and marks a potential shift from the country’s traditionally balanced foreign policy.
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- Strategic Possibility: Bangladesh’s Foreign Affairs Adviser, Touhid Hossain, indicated it is “strategically possible” for Dhaka to join a bloc with Pakistan and China, while excluding India. He noted that such a grouping would be challenging for landlocked nations like Nepal or Bhutan.
- Pakistan’s Proposal: The statement comes after Pakistan’s Deputy PM and Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar, hinted that a new Bangladesh-China-Pakistan trilateral arrangement has begun and could be expanded to include other regional countries.
- The Trilateral Foundation: The foundation for this grouping was laid in June when China, Bangladesh, and Pakistan held their first official-level trilateral meeting in Kunming, China. They agreed to enhance cooperation in areas like trade, investment, infrastructure, and debt management.
The Shift in Dhaka’s Foreign Policy
This discussion signals a clear departure from the foreign policy maintained by former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who was known for skillfully balancing relations with India, China, and the US.
- Post-Hasina Pivot: Following Sheikh Hasina’s removal in August 2024, there has been a swift and visible warming of ties between Pakistan and Bangladesh across defense, trade, and diplomacy, accelerating under the interim government.
- Alternative to SAARC: The new grouping is being explored by Islamabad and Beijing as a potential replacement for the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), which has been largely dormant since 2016 due to regional tensions involving India and Pakistan.
- Growing Chinese Influence: If materialized, this bloc would underscore the growing Chinese strategic footprint in South Asia, leveraging regional dissatisfaction with the dormant SAARC.
The reports suggest that the ultimate aim of the new arrangement is to invite other South Asian nations—former SAARC members—to join, further signaling a strategic recalibration in the region.
