The CAQ Faces an Uncertain Future After Legault’s Exit

The political landscape in Quebec has shifted dramatically following the resignation of François Legault on January 14, 2026. After 15 years at the helm of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), Legault’s departure leaves the party he founded in a precarious position just months before the next provincial election.

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1. A Steep Decline in Support

Legault’s resignation was catalyzed by a brutal 2025. Once the most popular premier in Canada, his “coalition” of federalists and nationalists began to crumble under several pressures:

• Polling Freefall: Support for the CAQ plummeted to historic lows (near 10%), with the party trailing significantly behind the Parti Québécois (PQ) and the Liberals.
• The “Exodus” Effect: High-profile cabinet ministers and backbenchers abandoned the party throughout 2025, signaling a loss of confidence in Legault’s leadership style.

2. Policy Stumbles and Public Backlash

The CAQ’s decline can be traced back to several key points of friction that eroded the public’s trust:

• Labor Relations: A series of protracted strikes in the education and healthcare sectors soured the government’s relationship with the public service.
• Financial Mismanagement: Significant cost overruns—notably the $500-million SAAQ digital overhaul—became symbols of government inefficiency.
• Healthcare Reform: Tension over Bill 2 and physician compensation created deep-seated resentment within the medical community.

3. The Challenges of a Post-Legault CAQ

The CAQ is facing its first leadership crisis since its inception in 2011. The party now faces three critical hurdles:

• The Identity Crisis: Without Legault’s personal brand, the party must decide if it remains a “third way” nationalist party or shifts further toward the right or center to survive.
• The Leadership Race: Potential candidates like Sonia LeBel, Simon Jolin-Barrette, and Bernard Drainville will have to move quickly to distance themselves from recent failures while maintaining the party’s base.
• The PQ Surge: The Parti Québécois, led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has capitalized on the CAQ’s weakness, framing the next election as a choice between sovereignty and a fading status quo.

Comparison: Then vs. Now

Metric	CAQ at Peak (2022)	CAQ Current (Jan 2026)
Polling Average	41%	11%
Key Opposition	Fractured	Unified (PQ Surge)
Internal Unity	Disciplined	High Resignation Rate
Primary Focus	Economy/Language	Crisis Management