The Terrebonne Gambit: Carney’s Path to Power

For Prime Minister Mark Carney, the dream of a majority government doesn’t lie in a cross-country sweep, but in a single, contested riding in Quebec: Terrebonne. After a Supreme Court ruling threw out the 2025 results, this byelection has become the most important 100 square kilometers in Canadian politics.

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The Catalyst: A Single Rejected Ballot

The Supreme Court’s decision to annul the Terrebonne result is a “black swan” event for the Liberals. The 2025 race was decided by one vote, but an Elections Canada printing error on mail-in envelopes invalidated enough ballots to make that margin impossible to verify.

Now, the riding is a blank slate that holds the key to the House of Commons.

The Majority Math

With the recent floor-crossing of MP Matt Jeneroux, Carney has nudged the Liberal count to 170. In a 343-seat House, he is a heartbeat away from total control.

Metric	Status
Current Liberal Seats	170
Majority Threshold	172
The Terrebonne Factor	Re-claiming this seat gets Carney to 171.

Carney’s Quebec Strategy

Carney isn’t leaving this to chance. By pivoting his rhetoric toward “Economic Sovereignty,” he is attempting a delicate surgical strike:

1. Court the Nationalist Vote: Using trade stability as a shield to win over Bloc Québécois leaners.
2. The “Stability” Pitch: Arguing that a majority government is the only way to navigate 2026’s volatile global trade environment.
3. Bypassing the Polls: If he wins Terrebonne and secures one more defection, he secures a majority without the risk of a general election.

The Bottom Line: While Pierre Poilievre slams these tactics as “backroom politics,” Carney is betting that voters in Terrebonne care more about economic certainty than parliamentary optics.