In the high-stakes “minority math” of Ottawa, Prime Minister Mark Carney is currently three seats away from a functional majority. While floor-crossings have bolstered his ranks, the final hurdle for the Liberal government may rest entirely on a single, high-stakes by-election in the Quebec riding of Terrebonne.
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The drama began on February 13, 2026, when the Supreme Court of Canada took the rare step of nullifying the 2025 election result in Terrebonne.
- The Original Result: Liberal Tatiana Auguste won by just one vote ($16,737$ to $16,736$) over the Bloc Québécois (BQ).
- The Ruling: The court found that “defective envelopes” provided by Elections Canada prevented at least one valid mail-in ballot from being counted.
- The Consequence: Auguste was forced to vacate her seat, dropping the Liberal count and triggering a by-election that must be called by August 15, 2026.
The Liberal Majority Roadmap
To reach the 172 seats required for a majority, Carney is playing a tactical game involving floor-crossers and vacant seats:
- The Floor-Crossers: Most recently, Edmonton MP Matt Jeneroux left the Conservatives to join the Liberals, marking the third such defection since Carney took office.
- The Toronto Strongholds: Two safe Liberal seats (University—Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest) are vacant following the departures of Chrystia Freeland and Bill Blair. These are widely expected to remain Liberal.
- The Terrebonne “Hinge”: If the Liberals sweep the two Toronto by-elections and reclaim Terrebonne, they hit the magic number of 172.
The Majority Math at a Glance
| Current Liberal Seats | Required for Majority | Gap |
| 169 (including Jeneroux) | 172 | 3 Seats |
Why Terrebonne is Different
Unlike the “safe” Toronto ridings, Terrebonne is a battlefield.
- Historical Context: Except for a brief NDP “Orange Crush” period, the riding has been a Bloc Québécois stronghold since 1993.
- Current Odds: Analysts (including 338Canada) currently give the Liberals only a 34% chance of holding the seat against a resurgent Bloc.
- The “Trump Effect”: Carney’s path to victory relies on his personal popularity in Quebec—boosted by his “middle power” diplomacy against U.S. trade pressures—vying against the Bloc’s traditional nationalist appeal.
