The Republican race has turned into an expensive, scorched-earth battle between the party’s long-standing establishment and its most prominent legal figure.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!- John Cornyn (The “Workhorse”): Fighting for a fifth term, Cornyn has spent roughly $70 million to shore up his right flank. His final pitch: a “99% voting record with Trump” and a warning that “complacency is a killer.” His closing ads have pivoted to sharp personal attacks on Ken Paxton’s character.
- Ken Paxton (The “Warrior”): Despite being heavily outspent, the Attorney General enters Tuesday with a slight edge in recent polls (38% to Cornyn’s 31%). He is betting on his high name recognition and his “America First” credentials, urging the MAGA base to reject “establishment” leadership.
- Wesley Hunt (The “Screwer”): The Houston Congressman has successfully positioned himself as a strong third-party option, pulling roughly 17–26% of the vote. His presence almost guarantees a May 26 runoff, as it is mathematically unlikely for Cornyn or Paxton to clear the 50% threshold on Tuesday.
The Democratic Primary: Combat vs. Crossover
- Jasmine Crockett (The “Fighter”): A national progressive star, Crockett has surged in February polls, leading by as much as 10 points in some surveys. Her momentum was capped off Friday with a high-profile robocall from former Vice President Kamala Harris, framing her as the candidate best equipped to hold “Trump and his billionaire cronies” accountable.
- James Talarico (The “Bridge-Builder”): The state representative is running a unique faith-based campaign focused on “crossover appeal.” He argues that while Crockett wins the base, he can win the General Election by peeling off rural and independent voters who are tired of hyper-partisanship.
The Final Numbers & Key Stats
| Metric | Details |
| Total Ad Spend | Topped $110 million, making it the most expensive Senate primary in Texas history. |
| Early Voting | Over 1.2 million ballots cast; Democrats are seeing high turnout in Harris and Tarrant counties. |
| Trump’s Stance | In a Corpus Christi speech Friday, Trump stated he “pretty much” decided on an endorsement but declined to name a winner, saying he supports “all three” Republicans for now. |
| Top Issues | Inflation and cost of living (46%) remain the #1 concern for voters across both parties. |
