In the months following the ouster of the Awami League, Bangladesh’s interim government under Muhammad Yunus has increasingly looked toward Islamabad. This shift is being solidified by a proposed “NATO-style” defense pact, modeled after the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) signed between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in September 2025.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!Key Features of the Proposed Deal
- Mutual Defense Clause: The agreement reportedly centers on the principle that “an aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.”
- Intelligence & Operations: The pact would establish a formal mechanism for sharing high-level intelligence and conducting joint military drills—the first of its kind between the two nations since 1971.
- Nuclear Ambiguity: Much like the Saudi deal, there is intense speculation regarding whether Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella would extend to Bangladesh, a prospect that would fundamentally alter India’s security calculations.
The Catalysts: Operation Sindoor and Internal Unrest
Two primary events in 2025 have accelerated this alliance:
- Operation Sindoor (May 2025): Following a major terror attack in Pahalgam, the Indian military launched a high-precision missile and air campaign against terror infrastructure deep within Pakistan. This operation underscored Pakistan’s conventional vulnerabilities, driving Islamabad to seek formal “collective security” partners to deter New Delhi.
- The Killing of Sharif Osman Hadi (December 2025): The assassination of the radical youth leader Sharif Osman Hadi on December 12 sparked a firestorm of anti-India sentiment across Bangladesh. Protesters and radical groups like the Inqilab Moncho have accused India of interference, providing the Yunus administration with the political cover to pivot toward Pakistan.
High-Level Military “Beeline” to Dhaka
The frequency of visits by top Pakistani brass to Dhaka has reached unprecedented levels:
- Lt. Gen. Asim Malik (ISI Chief): Reported to be coordinating a new intelligence-sharing network.
- General Sahir Shamshad Mirza (CJCSC): Discussed deepening military-to-military cooperation and potential hardware transfers (reportedly including JF-17 aircraft).
- Naval & Air Chiefs: Focused on maritime security and joint training protocols.
The Race Against the February Polls
With Bangladesh scheduled for general elections on February 12, 2026, Pakistan is keen to formalize the agreement under the current interim regime.
Strategic Calculation: Islamabad fears that if the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)—which, while historically cooler to India, is seen as more pragmatic than radical Islamist factions—takes power, the deal might be stalled or diluted. By signing it now, the Yunus administration would present the next government with a fait accompli.
Implications for India
New Delhi is reportedly monitoring the situation with “extreme vigilance.” The formalization of this pact would mean:
- A “Three-Front” Challenge: India would face permanent military pressure on its western, northern, and now eastern borders.
- The “Chicken’s Neck” Vulnerability: Enhanced Pakistan-Bangladesh cooperation near the Siliguri Corridor (the narrow strip connecting mainland India to its Northeast) poses a direct threat to Indian territorial integrity.
- End of the 1971 Status Quo: For the first time in over 50 years, the security architecture of the Bay of Bengal would be contested by a formal Islamabad-Dhaka military alliance.
