The “Bukele” Strategy: Laura Fernández’s Path to 40%

Published on: February 1, 2026

The "Bukele" Strategy: Laura Fernández’s Path to 40%

The central question of the night is whether Laura Fernández Delgado (PPSO) can secure the 40% of valid votes required to win outright and avoid an April runoff.

Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!

The Protege: As President Rodrigo Chaves’ former Chief of Staff, Fernández has framed herself as the only way to protect the “Chaves Legacy.”
Mano Dura: Her campaign has leaned heavily into a “tough-on-crime” platform, including promises to build a “mega-prison” and seeking inspiration from El Salvador’s security model to combat the country’s record-high homicide rates.
The Polls: Final surveys showed her hovering between 40% and 44%. If she succeeds, it would be the first first-round presidential victory in Costa Rica since 2010.

Table of Contents

A Fragmented Opposition

With 20 candidates on the ballot, the opposition is fighting for survival. The primary goal for these candidates is to keep Fernández under 40% to force a “reset” in a second round.

Candidate	Party	The Strategy
Álvaro Ramos	PLN	The centrist economist positioned as the “steady hand” to restore institutional norms.
Claudia Dobles	CAC	The former First Lady leading a progressive coalition focused on social and environmental issues.
Ariel Robles	Broad Front	Tapping into youth and labor support to challenge the PPSO from the left.

The Real Power: The Legislative Assembly

Even if the presidency goes to a runoff, today determines the makeup of the 57-seat Legislative Assembly. This is where the true long-term impact lies:

Judicial Influence: The incoming legislature will be responsible for appointing 14 of the 21 Supreme Court justices.
Institutional Conflict: President Chaves has spent much of his term in a public war with the judiciary and the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). A PPSO majority would signal a major shift toward executive power, while a fragmented house would likely lead to four more years of gridlock.

The Wildcard: Undecided voters and abstentionism. Despite the high drama of the campaign, nearly 26-32% of voters remained undecided in the final week. Their “silent” vote today will determine if Costa Rica chooses a quick continuity or a long, drawn-out battle for its political soul.