Takaichi’s Supermajority: A New Era of Friction

For years, Tokyo-Beijing relations have been a balancing act of “cold politics, warm economics.” That era is likely over. Takaichi, Japan’s first female PM and a staunch conservative, has transitioned from a popular newcomer to an unchecked political force.

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1. The Death of “Strategic Ambiguity”

Beijing’s biggest grievance involves Taiwan. Takaichi has already broken the long-standing Japanese tradition of “strategic ambiguity” by suggesting that a conflict in the Taiwan Strait would be an “existential threat” to Japan.

• The Impact: With a two-thirds majority in the Lower House, she can now override the Upper House and push through the constitutional reforms necessary to formalize the status of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces—a move China views as a direct return to Japanese militarism.

2. “Defense Keynesianism” and Export Control

Takaichi’s victory confirms public support for her “Sanaenomics” 2.0, which ties economic growth to military strength.

• Arms Exports: She plans to lift the ban on exporting lethal weapons to allied nations.
• Anti-Espionage Law: Her administration is fast-tracking a new national intelligence framework and anti-espionage laws designed to block Chinese intellectual property theft, further decoupling the two economies.

3. The Washington Connection

The “beef” is intensified by Takaichi’s strong rapport with U.S. President Donald Trump.

• Trump’s “Complete and Total Endorsement” of Takaichi just days before the election signals a unified, hawkish front.
• Their upcoming summit on March 19, 2026, is expected to focus on $550 billion in Japanese investments in the U.S. and a joint strategy to contain Chinese maritime expansion.

The Scorecard: Japan’s New Political Reality

Factor	Previous Context	Post-Election (Feb 2026)
LDP Mandate	Minority/Fractured	Landslide (316 Seats)
Legislative Power	Constant Gridlock	Supermajority (Override Power)
China Stance	Reactive	Proactive/Containment
US Relations	Formal	“Limitless” (Trump-Takaichi Alliance)

The Bottom Line: Beijing has already warned of a “resolute response” to Japan’s “reckless” new direction. With Takaichi no longer needing to play “polite politics” to keep her seat, the diplomatic temperature in the East China Sea is set to stay at a boiling point.