President Trump takes the podium tonight at 9 p.m. ET for a State of the Union address defined by plummeting approval ratings (41%) and a high-stakes legal battle with the nation’s highest court. With the crucial midterm elections approaching this fall, the President has promised a “long speech” to address a mountain of domestic and foreign crises.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!1. The Judicial Standoff: Tariffs & The Court
The most awkward visual tonight will be the front row. Last week, the Supreme Court struck down the bulk of Trump’s global tariffs, ruling his use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) was illegal.
- The Conflict: Trump has publicly labeled the justices “fools and lapdogs.”
- The Strategy: Watch for the President to pivot toward new, “legal” tariff structures targeting Canada and Mexico to replace those struck down by the court.
2. The Economic Divide
While Trump insists the U.S. has the “greatest economy ever,” polling shows a disconnect with the American public.
- The Data: Only 35% of voters approve of his handling of inflation.
- The Pivot: Advisers want Trump to focus on the “Big Three” of affordability: Groceries, Health Care, and Housing. Whether he stays on script or drifts into grievances remains the night’s biggest question.
3. Iran: Brinkmanship or Breakthrough?
The world is watching for a “red line” regarding Tehran.
- Military Pressure: U.S. forces are currently built up in the region, and non-essential diplomats have been evacuated from Beirut.
- The Diplomatic Track: Despite the “bad things will happen” rhetoric, a meeting is scheduled for Thursday in Geneva between Jared Kushner and Iranian negotiators. Tonight’s tone will signal if that meeting is a formality or a final chance for peace.
4. Election Integrity & The Midterms
Trump is expected to revisit his 2020 election claims, but the real focus is on the 2026 Midterms. Critics fear the administration is laying the groundwork to interfere in state-managed elections, specifically targeting swing-state hubs like Detroit, Philadelphia, and Atlanta.
5. The “Cold War” with Canada
Relations with America’s northern neighbor are at a historic low.
- Trade Wars: Trump has threatened 50% tariffs on Canadian aircraft and 100% tariffs on all goods if Canada pursues trade deals with China.
- Olympic Tensions: Adding a layer of bravado, Trump may use the speech to celebrate Team USA’s recent Olympic gold medal victories over Canada, potentially hosting the winning teams in the gallery as a show of “American Dominance.”
