As President Trump prepares for the first State of the Union of his second term, his rhetoric has centered on a “miraculous” national turnaround. However, economic data and federal reports suggest a more complex reality.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!1. The Economy & Investment
- The “Dead Economy” Myth: Trump frequently claims the U.S. was a “dead country” before 2025. In reality, GDP grew at 2.8% in 2024 (Biden’s final year). Under Trump in 2025, annual growth slowed slightly to 2.2%.
- The $18 Trillion Claim: The President claims to have secured $18 trillion in new investments, but the White House’s own website lists a much lower $9.6 trillion—much of which includes commitments inherited from the previous administration.
- Job Growth: 2025 saw the addition of only 181,000 jobs, the lowest non-recession total since 2002. Economists attribute this to AI displacement and market uncertainty caused by new tariffs.
2. Immigration & Public Safety
- The “Migrant Crime” Narrative: Despite claims of a migrant-driven crime wave, FBI and independent studies show no evidence of a spike. Data consistently shows that undocumented immigrants are less likely to be arrested for violent crimes than native-born citizens.
- Missing Children: Trump often cites “300,000 missing migrant children.” This stems from an August 2024 DHS report that criticized ICE for poor location tracking of children released to sponsors, not that the children were actually missing or lost.
3. Energy & Environment
- “Clean Coal”: While coal production is cleaner than in previous decades, it remains a primary source of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides, which contribute to respiratory illnesses and acid rain.
- Wind Power: Trump labels wind energy as expensive, but at roughly $30 per megawatt hour, onshore wind remains one of the cheapest electricity sources available.
4. Election Integrity & Results
- 2020 Claims: The President continues to claim the 2020 election was stolen. This remains a “blatant falsehood” disproven by dozens of court challenges, audits, and Trump’s own former Attorney General.
- The 2024 “Landslide”: While Trump won all seven swing states (312 to 226 in the Electoral College), the popular vote was a tight 49.8% to 48.3%, a margin far narrower than historical landslides.
5. Violent Crime Trends
- The 125-Year Record: Trump takes credit for the homicide rate potentially dropping to 4.0 per 100,000 residents in 2025. While this is a historic low, the downward trend actually began in 2022 following a pandemic-era spike. Experts note the decline is a long-term trend rather than the result of a single administration’s policy.
