Power Vacuum at the Border: The Impact of U.S. Action on Guerrilla Groups

The recent U.S. operation against the Maduro administration has shattered the status quo along the 1,400-mile border between Colombia and Venezuela. For the ELN and FARC dissident factions, the removal of their primary state sponsor has replaced a decades-long “security umbrella” with a period of high-stakes volatility.

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The Risks: A Shrinking Safe Haven

For years, Venezuela served as a “strategic rear” where guerrilla leaders could rest, recruit, and manage illicit businesses with impunity. That safety is now compromised:

• Loss of State Complicity: Without Maduro’s direct protection, the institutional support from the Venezuelan military (FANB) is fracturing. Guerrilla groups now face the risk of being sold out by Venezuelan officers looking to negotiate their own immunity with the U.S.
• Intelligence Exposure: U.S. surveillance and “special operations” assets are now active in areas previously considered untouchable. Leaders like the ELN’s Antonio García are likely moving deeper into the jungle or back into Colombia to avoid being swept up in the U.S. dragnet.
• Internal Infighting: As the central government in Caracas weakens, the competition for control over gold mines and drug routes is intensifying. Rival factions may turn on each other to seize assets before a new Venezuelan administration can consolidate power.

The Opportunities: From Outlaws to “Liberators”

Despite the danger, these groups are pivoting to exploit the chaos for political and territorial gain:

• The “Anti-Imperialist” Brand: The U.S. intervention allows the ELN and FARC to drop their image as common criminals and rebrand as “National Resistance” fighters. This narrative is a powerful recruitment tool for radicalized locals and former Venezuelan militia members.
• Territorial Expansion: In the absence of a functional Venezuelan state, these groups are stepping in to provide “governance” in rural areas. By acting as the de facto law, they secure local loyalty and control over the lucrative Arco Minero (Mining Arc).
• A Unified Front: The common threat of U.S. involvement is forcing historically rival factions to discuss a “Strategic Alliance.” If these groups stop fighting each other and focus on a shared insurgency, they could become a far more formidable regional threat.

Summary of the Shift

Before U.S. Intervention	After U.S. Intervention
Status: Protected state proxies	Status: Targeted “International Terrorists”
Strategy: Stability and resource extraction	Strategy: Mobile insurgency and survival
Support: Maduro’s inner circle	Support: Grassroots “anti-imperialist” networks