LISBON — The race for the Palácio de Belém has officially begun. With a record 11 candidates cleared to run, Portugal is entering one of its most unpredictable election seasons in history. The sheer number of contenders makes a runoff vote on February 8 almost a mathematical certainty.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!Why a Runoff is Likely
Under Portuguese law, a candidate must secure more than 50% of the total vote to win in the first round. With 11 names on the ballot, the vote is expected to be highly diluted:
- The “Crowded House” Effect: No single candidate is currently polling near the absolute majority mark.
- A Shift in Power: With incumbent Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa reaching his term limit, there is no “incumbency advantage” to stabilize the field.
- Fragmented Loyalty: Voters are split between traditional party veterans, populist challengers, and popular independent figures.
The Leading Contenders
While 11 are running, the race is largely seen as a battle between four distinct profiles:
| Candidate | Background | Political Alignment |
| Luís Marques Mendes | Lawyer & Commentator | Center-Right (PSD/CDS) |
| António José Seguro | Former PS Leader | Center-Left (Socialist) |
| Henrique Gouveia e Melo | Retired Admiral | Independent / Institutional |
| André Ventura | Leader of Chega | Right-Wing Populist |
Important Dates to Watch
- January 4: Official campaign period begins.
- January 18: First Round of Voting.
- February 8: Likely Runoff Election (between the top two finishers).
The Big Question: Will the final showdown be a traditional Left vs. Right battle, or will an independent “outsider” like Admiral Gouveia e Melo disrupt the established party system?
Hi there, just became alert to your blog through Google, and found that it’s truly informative. I’m gonna watch out for brussels. I’ll appreciate if you continue this in future. Many people will be benefited from your writing. Cheers!