LISBON — The race for the Palácio de Belém has officially begun. With a record 11 candidates cleared to run, Portugal is entering one of its most unpredictable election seasons in history. The sheer number of contenders makes a runoff vote on February 8 almost a mathematical certainty.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!Why a Runoff is Likely
Under Portuguese law, a candidate must secure more than 50% of the total vote to win in the first round. With 11 names on the ballot, the vote is expected to be highly diluted:
- The “Crowded House” Effect: No single candidate is currently polling near the absolute majority mark.
- A Shift in Power: With incumbent Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa reaching his term limit, there is no “incumbency advantage” to stabilize the field.
- Fragmented Loyalty: Voters are split between traditional party veterans, populist challengers, and popular independent figures.
The Leading Contenders
While 11 are running, the race is largely seen as a battle between four distinct profiles:
| Candidate | Background | Political Alignment |
| Luís Marques Mendes | Lawyer & Commentator | Center-Right (PSD/CDS) |
| António José Seguro | Former PS Leader | Center-Left (Socialist) |
| Henrique Gouveia e Melo | Retired Admiral | Independent / Institutional |
| André Ventura | Leader of Chega | Right-Wing Populist |
Important Dates to Watch
- January 4: Official campaign period begins.
- January 18: First Round of Voting.
- February 8: Likely Runoff Election (between the top two finishers).
The Big Question: Will the final showdown be a traditional Left vs. Right battle, or will an independent “outsider” like Admiral Gouveia e Melo disrupt the established party system?
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