The long-standing water-sharing arrangement between India and Pakistan has reached a dangerous breaking point. In December 2025, Pakistan issued a “serious and alarming” warning, alleging that India is manipulating the flows of the Jhelum, Neelum, and Chenab rivers. This escalation follows India’s unprecedented decision earlier this year to suspend the 65-year-old Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!The December Crisis: A “Water War” Emerges
According to reports from The Dawn, Pakistan has detected “abrupt variations” in water levels that directly threaten its agricultural heartland.
- Fluctuating Flows: In mid-December, inflows to the Mangla Dam (Jhelum) reportedly plummeted from 5,000 cusecs to 3,300 cusecs in a single day.
- Agricultural Threat: Approximately 15 million out of 25 million acres of Pakistan’s irrigated land are currently receiving reduced or no water. This disruption occurs during the critical Rabi (winter) sowing season, risking the food security of 240 million people.
- The Chenab Incident: Last week, Pakistan flagged a similar “volatile” pattern in the Chenab River, where flows surged to 58,000 cusecs before being sharply reduced to nearly zero for several days.
The Catalyst: The Pahalgam Attack (April 2025)
The roots of the current crisis trace back to April 22, 2025, when a terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, left 26 tourists dead.
- India’s Retaliation: On April 23, the Indian government placed the IWT in “abeyance” (suspension), stating that “blood and water cannot flow together.” This marked the first time the treaty was halted since its signing in 1960.
- Ending Data Sharing: Since the suspension, India has stopped providing real-time hydrological data to Pakistan—data that is essential for flood warnings and managing irrigation schedules.
- Infrastructure Shift: India has signaled it will fast-track hydroelectric projects like Kishanganga and Ratle without adhering to the treaty’s previous technical restrictions.
Legal and Strategic Stand-off
The two nuclear-armed neighbors are now in a legal and diplomatic deadlock:
Why it Matters
For Pakistan, a downstream country, the Indus river system is an existential lifeline. For India, the rivers have become a strategic tool of “hydrological leverage.” With no active communication channel between the water commissioners of both nations, the risk of a miscalculation—leading to either a drought or a man-made flood—is higher than ever.
