Myanmar’s “Sham” Election Wraps: A Preordained Victory for the Junta

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Myanmar’s "Sham" Election Wraps: A Preordained Victory for the Junta

The final phase of Myanmar’s general election concluded today, marking the end of a month-long process designed to entrench the military’s grip on power. While the junta frames the vote as a “return to democracy,” the international community has largely dismissed it as a carefully managed performance of legitimacy.

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The Electoral Snapshot

The election was conducted in three phases—December 28, January 11, and today—spanning only a fraction of the country due to the ongoing civil war.

  • A Managed Landslide: The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) has dominated the results. After the first two rounds, the USDP had already secured approximately 85% of the contested seats in the lower house and two-thirds of those in the upper house.
  • The Constitutional Safety Net: Even before a single vote was cast, the military held 25% of all parliamentary seats by law. Combined with the USDP’s wins, the military bloc already commands nearly 400 seats, far exceeding the 294 needed to form a government.
  • The Excluded Electorate: Voting was cancelled in roughly one-fifth to one-third of the country’s townships. Regions controlled by resistance forces or ethnic armed organizations were entirely bypassed, leaving millions of citizens without a voice.

Key Data & Atmosphere

FeatureDetails
Voter TurnoutEstimated at 55%, a sharp decline from the 70% seen in the 2020 democratic landslide.
SuppressionThe “Election Protection Law” remains in effect, threatening critics or boycotters with long prison terms or the death penalty.
Next PresidentSenior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing is widely expected to be selected as President by the new Parliament.
Official ResultsExpected by the end of this week, with the new government taking office in April 2026.

The Global Verdict

The international response has been sharply divided, reflecting the deep geopolitical rift over Myanmar’s future:

  • The Critics: The UN, EU, UK, and Australia have rejected the election’s legitimacy. Significantly, ASEAN (led by Malaysia) refused to send observers or certify the results, citing a lack of inclusive participation.
  • The Supporters: China, Russia, and India sent observers or provided diplomatic backing, viewing the election as a stabilizing step toward a managed civilian-military transition.

“The junta is banking on the world’s fatigue… hoping the international community will accept military rule dressed up in civilian clothing.”

Tom Andrews, UN Special Rapporteur on Myanmar

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