While Washington expresses optimism over a potential breakthrough in Ukraine, Kaupo Rosin, chief of Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, has issued a blunt reality check: Vladimir Putin isn’t looking for an exit—he’s looking for an advantage.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!The “Strategic Stall”
- Weaponizing Diplomacy: Putin is using the negotiation period to “outsmart” U.S. officials, buying time to restock his military while Western aid remains in a state of flux.
- Echo-Chamber Leadership: Rosin notes that Putin continues to receive sanitized, overly optimistic reports from his generals, fueling his belief that a total military victory remains possible.
- The 2026 Goal: The primary objective isn’t a settled border; it’s the total political and territorial control of Ukraine, regardless of the cost to the Russian economy.
A Growing Divide
There is a stark contrast between the “White House view” and the “Tallinn view” regarding the current state of the conflict:
| Perspective | Current Outlook | Assessment of Putin |
| U.S. Negotiators | Optimistic. Believe the 28-point plan is nearly finalized. | Seen as a motivated negotiator looking for a deal. |
| European Intel | Skeptical. View the talks as a smokescreen for rearmament. | Seen as a strategist waiting for Western political unity to snap. |
The “Regional War” Threat
The most alarming part of the assessment is the long-term forecast. Rosin warns that if Russia successfully uses this peace window to reconstitute its forces, the threat will quickly expand beyond Ukraine. Intelligence suggests Russia is already preparing for a potential confrontation with NATO near the Baltic Sea within the next two years.
