India’s Fuel Demand Rebounds Sharply in September
India’s consumption of diesel and petrol saw a significant rebound in September 2025, buoyed by the upcoming festive and wedding seasons and recent GST rate rationalization. This surge in demand occurred despite above-normal monsoon rains that typically limit mobility.
Key Consumption Metrics (Year-on-Year Growth):
| Fuel Type | September 2025 Consumption (million tonnes) | Year-on-Year (YoY) Change | Month-on-Month (MoM) Change |
| Diesel | 6.77 | +6.4% | +2.9% |
| Petrol | 3.39 | +7.5% | −4.0% |
| Jet Fuel (ATF) | 0.72 (716,000 tonnes) | −1.4% (Slipped) | +0.7% |
| Cooking Gas (LPG) | N/A | +6.5% | N/A |
Drivers of the Surge
- GST Rate Rationalisation: Industry officials note that rate cuts, implemented ahead of the festive season (October-December), spurred aggressive advance stocking, particularly for diesel. This suggests benefits were likely passed on to consumers, which is expected to support diesel volumes into October.
- Festive Stocking and Mobility: The start of the festive season drove increased demand across both commercial (diesel) and personal (petrol) transport.
- Vehicle Ownership: Resilient demand for petrol was attributed to the rising ownership of cars and two-wheelers.
Context and Outlook
- Weather Impact: While heavy rains (15% above normal) curbed some personal mobility—leading to a 4% monthly drop in petrol consumption—they did not dampen the overall demand boost from seasonal stocking.
- Economic Indicator: As fuel consumption is widely viewed as a proxy for economic activity, analysts anticipate that the combination of GST relief and festival-driven demand will maintain buoyant petroleum consumption in the coming months.
