Canada Scrambles to Secure Trilateral Trade as “CUSMA Review” Looms

OTTAWA/MEXICO CITY — Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s Minister for U.S. Trade, has confirmed he will meet with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in the coming weeks. The high-stakes sit-down aims to de-escalate rising tensions before the mandatory July 1, 2026, review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).

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1. Growing Friction: The “Alcohol Obstacle”

The meeting follows sharp criticism from Greer, who recently labeled Canada a “challenging” partner compared to a more “pragmatic” Mexico.

• The Dispute: Greer specifically cited the refusal of some Canadian provinces to stock U.S. wine and spirits.
• The Retaliation: In 2025, several provinces pulled American alcohol from shelves in response to Trump-era tariffs and threats of annexation. Greer now cites these “barriers” as a major hurdle to starting formal negotiations.

2. The Trilateral vs. Bilateral Threat

A central point of contention is whether the agreement will remain a three-country pact.

• The U.S. Stance: The Trump administration has mused about scrapping the trilateral deal in favor of separate bilateral agreements with Canada and Mexico—a move that could significantly weaken Canada’s negotiating leverage.
• The Canada-Mexico Alliance: Currently on a massive trade mission in Monterrey, Mexico, LeBlanc has secured a “united front” with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. Both nations have reaffirmed their absolute commitment to a trilateral framework.

3. The “Carney Factor” and China

Diplomatic relations have been further strained by the relationship between President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

• Tariff Freezes: While Carney successfully smoothed relations during two Oval Office visits, talks reportedly “froze” recently after Trump was angered by a Canadian ad campaign quoting Ronald Reagan to criticize tariffs.
• The China Complication: Washington remains wary of Canada’s trade arrangements with China, particularly regarding electric vehicles, which U.S. officials view as a “backdoor” for Chinese goods into the North American market.

Key Deadlines & Outlook

Milestone	Date	Significance
LeBlanc-Greer Meeting	March 2026 (Expected)	First face-to-face attempt to thaw “frozen” negotiations.
Joint Review Deadline	July 1, 2026	The hard deadline for all three nations to confirm if they will extend the deal to 2042.
Sunset Clause	2036	If no extension is reached, the agreement is scheduled to expire.

Bottom Line: While LeBlanc described his recent phone call with Greer as “fruitful” and “cordial,” the road to July remains rocky. Canada is pivoting toward a “Team Canada” strategy—balancing outreach to Washington with a deepened strategic partnership with Mexico to ensure it isn’t left out in the cold.