A surge in military activity has rattled the fragile three-month-old ceasefire in Gaza. Despite the dip in large-scale combat since October, recent strikes have highlighted the instability of the current truce just as the U.S. prepares to launch the next phase of its regional peace initiative.+1
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!1. Fatal Strikes Shatter Local Calm
- The Casualties: Among those killed was an 11-year-old girl in Jabalia who reportedly dreamed of becoming a doctor. In southern Gaza, a drone strike hit a tent camp for displaced persons near Khan Younis, killing four people, including three children.+1
- The Israeli Response: The IDF stated the strikes were “precise” responses to a failed rocket launch by militants earlier that day, which fell inside Gaza. The military maintain that they will continue to act against any breach of the ceasefire agreement.
- Wider Toll: Since the U.S.-sponsored truce began on October 10, local health officials report that over 425 Palestinians have been killed in sporadic flare-ups.
2. The “Board of Peace” Announcement
- Leadership: Trump will personally chair the board.
- On-the-Ground Director: Former UN Mideast envoy Nickolay Mladenov has been tapped as the Director-General. Mladenov, a Bulgarian diplomat, is seen as a key bridge between Israeli and Palestinian leadership due to his previous tenure (2015–2020).+1
- Strategic Oversight: An intermediate executive committee—expected to include Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, and former UK PM Tony Blair—will oversee the board’s high-level strategy.
3. What is Phase II?
The upcoming phase of the peace plan is significantly more complex than the initial hostage-for-prisoner exchanges. Its goals include:
- Security: Deploying an International Stabilization Force (potentially including troops from Turkey, Indonesia, or Azerbaijan).
- Governance: Supervising a new technocratic Palestinian government that excludes Hamas.
- Demilitarization: Managing the official disarmament of Hamas and other militant groups.
- Reconstruction: Coordinating a multi-billion dollar international fund to rebuild Gaza’s infrastructure.
Current Obstacles
Diplomatic progress remains stalled by two main factors:
- The Hostage Deadlock: Israel insists on the recovery of the remains of the final deceased hostages before fully withdrawing troops.
- Disarmament Resistance: Hamas has publicly renounced the ceasefire following the recent strikes and continues to resist calls for total disarmament.
