The Nobel Institute is investigating a massive surge in online betting on prediction market Polymarket that signaled Maria Corina Machado would win the Nobel Peace Prize hours before the official announcement. Officials have suggested that the leak is “highly likely” linked to espionage.
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The controversy stems from highly unusual wagering activity on Thursday night, just hours before Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was officially named the laureate around 10 a.m. local time on Friday.
- Before Midnight: Machado was a long-shot, with odds of winning sitting at around 3.75%.
- After Midnight: Her odds skyrocketed to over 73%, indicating a sudden, large influx of informed wagers.
Suspicious Winnings
The unusual bets resulted in significant profits for a few key accounts, raising concerns about insider trading:
- Combined Profit: Profitable traders earned a combined total of approximately $90,000 USD.
- New Accounts: Some of the large, successful bets were placed by users whose accounts were newly created and had no prior trading history on the platform.
Officials Respond
Kristian Berg Harpviken, Director of the Nobel Institute, told Norway’s TV2 that while the unusual activity would be investigated and security tightened, the leak was “Highly likely it’s espionage.” He stressed that the institute is a known target for actors (both state and non-state) seeking information for political and economic gain.
Jorgen Watne Frydnes, Chairman of the Nobel Committee, however, dismissed the possibility of an internal breach, saying, “I don’t think there have ever been any leaks in the entire history of the prize.”
Maria Corina Machado was awarded the prize “for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy.”
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