Following the recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear capabilities and the January ouster of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, President Trump has turned his full attention toward Havana. On March 5, 2026, speaking at the White House alongside Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Trump indicated that a massive shift in Cuban policy is underway, describing the island’s government as being in “a big deal of trouble.”
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!The “Friendly Takeover” and the “Donroe Doctrine”
- Negotiations: Trump revealed that “high-level” talks are occurring, with reports suggesting U.S. officials have met with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro (grandson of Raúl Castro) to discuss a transition.
- The Business Approach: The administration’s goal appears to be a deal that opens Cuba to U.S. investment while potentially allowing some regime figures to remain in place, similar to the transition currently unfolding in Venezuela.
- Strategic Vision: Trump has dubbed his aggressive Western Hemisphere policy the “Donroe Doctrine”—a 21st-century update to the Monroe Doctrine focused on American economic and security dominance.
The 2026 Cuban Energy Crisis
Cuba is currently paralyzed by its most severe energy crisis in history, triggered by a U.S.-led “energy blockade” that has successfully choked off almost all fuel imports since January 9, 2026.
Current Grid Status
- Massive Blackouts: On March 4, a total failure at the Antonio Guiteras power plant plunged two-thirds of the country into darkness. While power was partially restored by March 6, daily outages of 18–20 hours remain the norm.
- Oil Depletion: Since the capture of Maduro, Cuba’s primary oil lifeline has been cut. The U.S. has intercepted multiple shipments destined for the island, leaving it with nearly zero reserves.
- Aviation Collapse: In February, major carriers like Air Canada and Rossiya (Russia) suspended all flights to Cuba because the island could no longer provide jet fuel for return trips.
Executive Order 14380: The Global Chokehold
The primary tool for this pressure is Executive Order 14380, signed by Trump on January 29, 2026. This order declared a National Emergency regarding Cuba and introduced a novel tariff mechanism:
- Third-Party Tariffs: The U.S. now threatens to impose massive tariffs on any country that sells oil to Cuba.
- Targeting Mexico: This is specifically aimed at deterring Mexico, which had stepped in to replace Venezuelan supplies.
- Private Sector Loophole: On February 25, the Treasury Department authorized a “favorable licensing policy” that allows Venezuelan oil to be sold only to Cuba’s emerging private sector, intentionally bypassing and weakening the central government.
“They have no money. They have no anything right now… but they’re talking to us. And maybe we’ll have a friendly takeover of Cuba.” — President Donald Trump, February 27, 2026
Impact on the Ground
The humanitarian situation has deteriorated rapidly. Garbage is piling up in Havana because trash trucks have no fuel, and the UN has warned that the fuel shortage is now threatening the country’s water systems and food supply.
