AP Decision Notes: North Carolina’s 2026 State Primaries

Election Day: Tuesday, March 3, 2026

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Polls Open: 6:30 a.m. – 7:30 p.m. ET

North Carolina voters head to the polls tomorrow for a primary that will set the stage for one of the nation’s most expensive and consequential midterm battles. With the retirement of Republican Senator Thom Tillis, the state has become the focal point of the fight for control of the U.S. Senate.

The Battle for the U.S. Senate

The departure of Thom Tillis has created a rare open-seat opportunity in this perennial swing state.

• The Democratic Primary: Former two-term Governor Roy Cooper is the overwhelming favorite. Cooper enters the primary with a massive $21 million war chest and near-universal name recognition. He faces five other candidates, including Marcus Williams and Justin Dues, but is expected to cruise to the nomination.
• The Republican Primary: This race is a test of Donald Trump’s influence. The former president has endorsed Michael Whatley, the former RNC Chair. Whatley has out-raised his opponents significantly but faces a crowded field of six candidates, including conservative activist Michele Morrow and former Navy JAG officer Don Brown.

Redrawn Congressional Districts

Following a 2025 redistricting by the state legislature, several U.S. House seats have new boundaries designed to favor GOP pickups.

• District 1: This is the state’s most competitive “swing” district. Five Republicans, including Laurie Buckhout and Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck, are vying for the chance to unseat Democratic incumbent Don Davis.
• District 4: Incumbent Valerie Foushee faces a high-profile progressive challenge from Nida Allam, a rematch of their tight 2022 primary.

Key Legislative & Local Races

• The Berger Challenge: In the state Senate, Republican Leader Phil Berger faces a rare and aggressive primary challenge from Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page.
• Court of Appeals: Contested primaries on both sides for Seats 1 and 3 will determine the ideological makeup of the state’s second-highest court heading into the general election.

What to Watch on Election Night

1. The 30% Threshold: In North Carolina, a candidate must receive at least 30% of the vote to avoid a runoff. If no one hits this mark, the second-place finisher can call for a “second primary” on May 12, 2026.
2. The “Independent” Variable: Unaffiliated voters—the state’s largest voting bloc—can choose to vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary. Their participation often shifts the needle for more moderate candidates.
3. Voter ID in Action: This is the first major midterm cycle with the full implementation of North Carolina’s photo ID law. Watch for reports on “ID Exception Forms” to see if the requirement impacts turnout in urban versus rural precincts.