The March 17, 2026, Illinois primary is shaping up to be a definitive moment for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). After a surprising defeat in New Jersey earlier this year, the group is pouring millions into Illinois to prove it still holds the “gold standard” of influence over the Democratic party’s platform on Israel.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!The Strategy: Big Money and “Stealth” PACs
Rather than making the debate strictly about foreign policy, AIPAC and its super PAC, United Democracy Project (UDP), are utilizing a “hidden hand” approach:
- Funding Shifts: They are funnelling record-breaking sums—estimated between $2M and $5M—into local races.
- Rebranding: To avoid polarizing voters on Middle East policy, the group is using “pop-up” PACs with names like Affordable Chicago Now and Elect Chicago Women. These ads focus on domestic issues or candidate biographies while quietly sidelining progressive critics.
Key Battlegrounds
The fight is concentrated in districts where the Democratic base is shifting left:
- The 7th District: A massive ad buy is currently boosting Melissa Conyears-Ervin in a race seen as a bellwether for AIPAC’s ability to protect its allies.
- The Senate Race: Rep. Robin Kelly has drawn a line in the sand by labeling Israel’s actions in Gaza as “genocide.” Her opponents, Raja Krishnamoorthi and Juliana Stratton, have maintained more traditional pro-Israel stances, creating a clear ideological split for voters.
The Stakes for 2026
This isn’t just about Illinois; it’s a test of the “New Jersey Effect.” After AIPAC-backed Tom Malinowski lost his special election in early 2026, the organization needs a win in Illinois to discourage future candidates from breaking rank on unconditional aid to Israel.
However, with 73% of Democratic primary voters now favoring some form of aid conditioning, AIPAC isn’t just fighting candidates—it’s fighting a shifting tide in public opinion.
