The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has officially shifted its forecast, signaling a 60% probability that the El Niño phenomenon will emerge this summer. After a winter dominated by La Niña, the Pacific is warming up, and the transition could significantly alter Japan’s seasonal patterns.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!The Forecast at a Glance
- Spring (March–May): A transition phase. There is a 50% chance of moving into “Neutral” conditions as the cold La Niña waters dissipate.
- Summer (June–August): The odds tip in favor of El Niño, with a 60% likelihood of it becoming the dominant weather driver.
What to Expect This Summer
- Lingering Rain: The Tsuyu (rainy season) often lasts longer. Expect more overcast days and a potential delay in the “official” start of summer.
- The Temperature Paradox: Historically, El Niño brings cooler northern temperatures. However, due to ongoing global warming trends, experts warn we may still see intense humidity and heat spikes, rather than a consistently mild summer.
- Agricultural Watch: Reduced sunlight hours can be a concern for rice farmers in the Tohoku and Hokkaido regions.
Bottom Line: Prepare for a “mercurial” summer—damp, humid, and less predictable than the scorching heatwaves of previous years.
