Final U.S.-Russia Nuclear Pact Expires

Published on: February 5, 2026

February 5, 2026 — Today, the world enters a period of unprecedented nuclear uncertainty. At midnight, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) officially expired, leaving the United States and Russia without a legally binding agreement to limit their nuclear arsenals for the first time in over half a century.

Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!

The lapse of the treaty, which was signed in 2010 and extended for a final five years in 2021, signals the potential start of a three-way arms race involving a rapidly modernizing China.

Table of Contents

The Breakdown of Restraint

While the treaty was designed to last until today, its effectiveness had already been hollowed out by years of geopolitical friction:

Verification Collapse: On-site inspections were halted in 2020 due to the pandemic and never resumed. By 2023, following the invasion of Ukraine, Russia formally “suspended” participation, ending the data exchanges that gave both sides a clear view of the other’s “nuclear punch.”
The “Better Deal” Ambition: President Donald Trump has recently signaled a preference for a new, broader framework. In a January interview with The New York Times, he remarked, “If it expires, it expires. We’ll just do a better agreement,” insisting that any future pact must include China.
China’s Shadow: Beijing continues to expand its arsenal, projected to reach 1,000 warheads by 2030, yet it remains resistant to joining trilateral talks, viewing its stockpile as still vastly inferior to the 5,000+ warheads held by each of the two superpowers.

Risks of a “Unconstrained” World

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres described the expiration as a “grave moment” for global stability. Without New START, there are no longer any legal “caps” on:

Deployed Warheads: The limit of 1,550 warheads is now gone. Both nations have thousands of “reserve” warheads that could be moved onto missiles relatively quickly.
Strategic Launchers: Limits on ICBMs, submarine-launched missiles, and heavy bombers have vanished.
Predictability: Military planners must now rely on “worst-case scenario” assumptions, which traditionally drives increased defense spending and larger stockpiles.

Is There a “Plan B”?

Despite the formal end of the treaty, a “gentleman’s agreement” may temporarily keep the peace. In late 2025, Vladimir Putin proposed that both sides voluntarily observe the treaty’s numerical limits for one additional year. While the Trump administration has not formally accepted, many analysts believe both sides will maintain the current status quo in the short term to avoid the staggering costs of an immediate buildup.

“The 40-year process of shrinking nuclear stockpiles is now going into reverse,” warns The Economist. “We are moving from a world of arms control to a world of strategic competition.”